Global Economics Intelligence Executive Summary
July 2020 – By Mc Kinsey’s Global Economic Intelligence (GEI) Authors, Alan FitzGerald, Krzysztof Kwiatkowski, and Sven Smit
The US economy experienced a record-breaking GDP contraction of –9.5% (year over year) in the second quarter of 2020 (–32.9% annualized). Many analysts expect positive growth in the third quarter, stemming from partial reopening, but a continued surge of COVID-19 cases could halt further expansion. In terms of pandemic control and recovery, the eurozone occupies a position between China and the United States, but its economy sustained a deep contraction in the second quarter as well. Preliminary flash estimates published by the European Union show a contraction of –15.0% (y-o-y) in the eurozone as a whole, with contractions in its largest economies of –22.1% in Spain, –19.0% in France, –17.3% in Italy, and –11.7% in Germany. These are the worst quarterly results ever recorded in the eurozone and reveal how steep a climb lies ahead. Industrial production has, however, been ramping up lately as eurozone economies reopen.
